Sir Alex Ferguson has shown that there are a lot of battles and challenges to be won in the English game,hence there's little or no need to leave his Carrington office for the lights of Madrid, Barcelona, Turin or Milan. Here, he has full and absolute control and doesn't need to look over his shoulder with some Director of Football breathing down his neck. Sir Alex has faced many challenges over his 25year stay at Old Trafford, but the challenge posed by Manchester City is probably his greatest yet; why you would ask? City have the financial muscle to spend, spend and spend season after season to ensure they emulate United in an already divided city.
The previous 162 meetings between both sides have had mixed outcomes; City in 1974 sent United to the old 2nd Division, United have a number of times scored late winners at either Maine Road or the Etihad; United have won League titles on their neighbor's patch. The 163rd meeting will definitely be all out war between two teams that know that a positive result may just be the difference in been crowned Champions or been termed also rans.
Tactics
A lot has been said about how both teams will approach the game, there are three points at stake with the added compliment of been crowned Premier League Champions for either the 13th time or the 1st time.
Roberto Mancini is Italian (like we don't know) and its in their DNA to approach games with a lot of negativity; based on this i actually expect City to sit back and invite United to come at them. This might back fire as United in the real sense do not have to go chase the game. I understand Mancini is considering starting with Balotelli upfront on his own with either Aguero or Tevez playing behind him; for me this just doesn't make much sense. Aguero and Tevez seem to have formed a good partnership over the last couple of weeks, hence the ideal thing to do is start with both up front dropping off each other to cause the United defense plenty of trouble with having to pick them up when they drop off each other.
It will be interesting to see how Mancini will deploy David Silva, who seems to have recovered his form at a very vital time, chances are that Mancini will go with Yaya Toure (he can break forward with his long strides, but his first job will be defensive), Barry and De Jong in midfield, playing just in front of their back four to cut off the supply from Carrick and especially Scholes.
Sir Alex really just requires a draw from this game and may just approach it like a Champions League group game and not as a cup final, although this might be counter productive (check United's performance in Europe this season, very demoralizing). The key question will be if United will go with a two man central midfield of Scholes and Carrick and expect the quality that Rooney has in dropping into the middle to ensure the Red Devils have 3 in the Middle without the ball and to look for those quick balls along the 18yards box for Welbeck to hold up and use his technique and approach play that puts him ahead of Chicharito in the pecking order. Defensively United showed a vulnerability that we hadn't seen for sometime now, remember that the current central defensive pair were involved in the infamous Six in the City match and most keep their concentration to avoid a repeat performance which may just hand the title to the noisy neighbors.
Sir Alex has a big headache to deal with and that's if he should play Rafael at Right back as a lot of the blame from the Everton game has been dropped at his down step; would he go with Jones or Smalling, for me Smalling gets the nod to add a physical edge to United's game. United really have nothing to fear and may just approach the game the same way they approached it in the FA Cup third round, play direct and attack with raw and genuine pace.
Key Players
Valencia and Silva; both players have been the creative force for their team in the title running; Silva has had to deal with a loss of form whilst Valencia has had to battle with Ankle surgery and a hamstring injury. Both are back to their best; can Carrick pick up Silva's intelligent runs and how well will Valencia cope against Clichy or Kolarov to get to the bye line and get those pin point crosses in.
Rooney and Tevez; Rooney is United's top scorer this season and has formed a good partnership with Welbeck, he has shown great adaptability this season even playing in midfield at some point, but his true influencial self has been in front of goal with 26 goals this season in the League. Tevez on the other hand seemed to have played his last game for City,but since his return City have been reborn and have made a late charge at the title. These two carry a lot of responsibility on their shoulders and if at the top of their game, will make this derby a real spectacle.
Hart and De Gea; Joe Hart is probably the best goalie in the premiership and has kept a clean sheet in 43% of Manchester City games, he is one of the reasons City are on beaten at home in the league. De Gea, on the other hand found life quite tough in the early months of the season, but since the turned of the year he has turn in several man of the match performances and played a part in getting a clean sheet percentage of 51%. Both Goalies may just be the difference between a victory and a loss, its important both keepers organize their defense and concentration has to be at its peak.
Scholes and Yaya Toure; United are undefeated in any game Paul Scholes plays in; that just shows absolute genius and maybe over reliance on the ginger haired midfield maestro; Scholes has more experience in this derby games that anyone else in either teams asides Ryan Giggs, he's scored crucial goals at the Etihad (remember the thank you kiss from Gary Neville)
. Its as if Scholes never retired in the first place and the United faithful are glad to have him back; his experience will be vital in this game, he has to get the better of City's midfield three especially Yaya Toure, who we know will use his brute strength and power to charge at United at all times. Yaya Toure hasn't had the same kind of season like his coming of age season last time out, but he remains a very important member of the City jig saw and his presence in their midfield will be vital to stop United coming at City as well as taking City forward when they try to break quickly from the back.Conclusion
A lot will depend on who can control proceedings and who wants it more; if you'd ask me, i'll suggest City come out all guns blazing,but i do not think this will happen. United will want to have a calming influence on the game and will seek to slow down the tempo as much as they can and exploit the strength in the wide areas; now this is where City may be vulnerable as they'd be little protection for their full backs and their concentration will be on ensuring United are unable to switch play from side to side.
Its going to be an explosive encounter, who wants it more? United or City; we'll find out Monday at the Etihad stadium.
Verdict: As is usual with games like this,both teams may just decide to be too cautious and we may just have a draw on our hands, final result will be 1-1; even Stevens.
Adeyemi Adesanya
Tactics IQ Limited
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Very good analysis!
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