AC Milan v Arsenal
Arsenal have had one of those season again, fighting tooth and nail to get into the Champions League places in the Premier League, whilst having to ensure that the pressure of carrying the team doesn't get to Robin Van Persie. In Robin Van Persie, Arsenal have probably the best player in the world outside Ronaldo and Messi, with 22goals in 24 appearances, he deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence as Ronaldo and Messi. Arsenal are unbeaten in two visits to the San Siro and have a track record of proving we doubters wrong; wonderful European performances like the Henry show piece performance versus Inter remain indelible in ones minds, what's to say Arsenal cannot repeat same against an injury ravaged Milan squad (this is not to give the self proclaimed No.1 Milanista Jefferey Hustle something to hold on to); my problem with Arsenal lies in its defense, with Mertesacker likely to be missing with injury; the gunners are even more fragile in defense; Milan have scored the highest number of goals from set pieces in Serie A (11goals), Arsenal's problems at set pieces is well documented; Milan have an average ball possession of 60% to Arsenal's 59%, pass completion rate is even at 85%; so expect some fire works in midfield; although i feel Milan are more equipped in breaking up play than Arsenal. Arsenal have only won 52% of their aerial duels against Milan's 59%; success, this may be where Milan win this battle over two legs. However, in Open play Arsenal can be ruthless with 36goals scored compared to Milan's 22 goals; the Gunners can hurt Milan especially via fast breaks where Arsenal have scored 6goals as against Milan's 4goals. In my opinion, the draw favours Arsenal going away from home first; they could put the tie to bed in the first leg, but then Milan's European pedigree is second only to Real Madrid and of course the 2012 Blueprint is all about wining the UCL for the 8th time.
Verdict: This is going to be tight, the gunners have a way of pulling things like this off, but Milan's pedigree and know how cannot be discounted. Let me stick my neck out my neck for the gunners (hope i do not lose it) due to their superior pace and goals scored rate on the break.
Napoli v Chelsea:
Previewing this game in my head panned out to be quite interesting; weighing the strengths, weaknesses, style of play and stats proved quite interesting for me, Napoli are a team after my heart; i have completely fallen in love with Walter Mazzarri's tactical and managerial style. In my opinion, Napoli have played some of the most fantastic football in Europe this season so far; the attention to tactical detail is quite infectious, anytime i think about this tie, i continuously write off Chelsea, but then i look at the Stats again and I wonder.
Napoli's main strengths lies in scoring from through ball situations (Chelsea keep trying to play a high line, watch out for this one), defending set plays (Chelsea are quite good offensively and defensively on set plays) ,Napoli are good in wing play situations and on fast breaks (we all know Chelsea are poor in defending counter attacks) and interestingly Napoli play a lot of possession football, which Chelsea have tried to implement with little success. Its not all rosy for Napoli, they are particularly poor defending wing play situations (Chelsea's full backs would love this, but have to watch their backs, Napoli are good at exploiting the spaces on the wings) and Napoli are quite weak in aerial duels, this is one of Chelsea's strengths.
Chelsea on the other hand, have been in a very interesting vain of form, interesting because i have not seen Chelsea this vulnerable in a very long time; but then they have their strengths as well; Chelsea utilize the outlet on the wings very well with their full backs been used to good effect, on set plays there are not many teams like Chelsea, but then they are vulnerable to a counter attacking style and lately just can't hold onto a lead.
Napoli's 3-4-2-1 formation leans towards a revelation in tactical balancing, in Edison Cavani they have one of Europe's most feared strikers; the same cannot be said for Chelsea with Torres's problems well documented on this blog (just read the Drogba Myth); if there was ever a time Chelsea needed the #50MM its now, i think the game is going to be a lot closer than many think, but attention to the very little details may just be the difference and we all know Mazzarri pays a lot of attention to details.
Verdict: Well, just because of how i feel about Napoli and how much i have enjoyed watching them this season, i think Napoli have the better features to take this over two legs. Walter Mazzarri is very meticulous and i am sure he would make adequate arrangements to sort Chelsea out.
Bayer Leverkusen V Barcelona
The gulf in class is evident, but then stranger things have happened, Barca on paper are the better team, but you just cannot write off those Germans. German football is in a very good place now with the national team's exploits and been one of the favourites for the forthcoming Euro 2012. All that not withstanding, Barcelona (the holders) are the team to beat in this year's competition, but then Barcelona seem to have lost the juice for winning laurels, its as if they've gotten tired of been at the pinnacle of Club football, is it safe to say that the tag of the greatest club in history may have gotten to their heads or has it weighed them down.
The first leg may be somewhat closer than most may think, but at the Nou Camp Barcelona always look imperious and i expect the second leg to be a walk in the park for the Catalans.
Verdict: Barcelona to breeze truly.
Marseille v Inter Milan
This is an encounter that would be quite explosive; both teams have had one if those season; Inter seemed to be on a resurgence, but in the last couple of weeks have been brought back to earth, stories of Ranieri leaving at season's end has not helped the team and the loss of Thiago Motta has unsettled the entire squad. Marseille's major weakness lie in their ability to keep leads, they've been very vulnerable when ahead this season, defensively especially from wide play has posed a problem for Marseille; Inter need to watch out for Marseille's counter attacking approach with Valbuena as well as their potency from set plays; Inter would look to the guile and creativity of Ricardo Alvarez and Wesley Sneidjer (if fully fit).
Verdict: Over two legs, i think Inter have more ammunition to ensure qualification to the last eight
Lyon v Apoel
Apoel are the surprise package of this season Champions League with their dynamic 4-2-3-1 formation; much of their success has been based on their solid away run in the competition which led to them topping their group which had some seasoned European campaigners. Lyon on the other hand are a shadow of the Lyon that won 6 straight titles, Remi Garde as with every Lyon manager has been under some pressure; however Lyon have done quite well since the resumption after the winter break, they have currently lost two of their last 9 games and were shocked by Caen at the weekend, however their home form has been quite solid.
Apoel will need the likes of Ailton to bring their A game once again, something just tells me that Apoel may just nick this over two legs as Apoel's strong away showing and current 5 game unbeaten streak sets them in good stead to make the progression. Lyon, well are Lyon; they've built the pedigree to some extent but have been knocked at this stage regularly and i believe that may just continue. However, there may be a different outcome if some of their stars come to the party particularly the youngster Lacazzette, Lisandro Lopez and Yohan Gourcuff needs to rediscover is past form.
Verdict: If Apoel get anything from the first leg as i expect them to; they will go through to the last eight. Apoel go through and continue the fairy tale.
FC Basel v Bayern Munich
FC Basel, the eliminators of Manchester United have a very difficult task on their hands to eliminate another of Europe's top teams and one the favourites and host of this year's final.
Bayern without their midfield supremo Bastian Schweinsteiger are quite vulnerable as Toni Kross for me cannot do as good a job as Schweinsteiger in that midfield engine room. Bayern are strong in all departments; Robben and Ribery will always be dangerous; Mario Gomez is a goal scoring beast; i can go on and on. This is Bayern's game to lose.
Verdict: Bayern to coast through.
Zenith v Benfica
This may be a bit tough to call, Benfica topped their group, whilst Zenith had to wait till the last day to seal qualification.
Verdict: May go to a shoot out, Zenith to go through.
CSKA Moscow v Real Madrid
Real have been on fire in La Liga as well as in the Champions League until they meet their arch nemesis Barcelona; in cold Russia, it would be tough Cska's top scorer(Seydou Doumba) would have returned from the Nations cup coupled with the signing of Ahmed Musa. CSKA will be a tricky proposition, but the Real have a tried and tested squad and manager to see them through.
Verdict: Real to go through, Moscow leg would be tough though.
In conclusion
I just hope i do not get my face covered in egg this time, but we'd have an enjoyable sequence of matches to look forward to.
Moreso, its my Birthday so, not too sure if i'm having the feel good factor or a reflective mood.
Adeyemi Adesanya
Tactics IQ Limited
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